Lines never learn…

Boxship deliveries to outpace scrapping in 2017
James Baker | Thursday, 26 January 2017
New capacity will outweigh vessels removed from fleet by two to one
The sizeable number of ultra large containerships due to be delivered in 2017 is expected to drive containership fleet growth this year, despite increased levels of scrapping, according to Alphaliner.
“Some 78% of the 1.7m teu of new containership capacity scheduled to be added to the fleet is concentrated on ships above 10,000 teu,” Alphaliner said.
The overall delivery figure is expected to be twice as high as Alphaliner’s 750,000 teu containership scrapping forecast for 2017.
“Even accounting for a potential slippage of about 250,000 teu, with some deliveries likely to be deferred by shipowners, the projected capacity additions would still reach 1.4m teu, with net fleet growth after slippage and scrapping forecast to reach 3.4% this year,” Alphaliner said.
The relatively high fleet growth rate, compared with the low 1.5% growth rate recorded in 2016, when only 930,000 teu was delivered, would prolong the overcapacity and further delay the recovery in the container shipping market, Alphaliner added.
Newbuildings would also add to the idle ship pool, which currently stands at 1.4m teu.
“Forced cascading, triggered by the incessant flow of ULCS newbuildings, will continue to create havoc among smaller ship sizes, hampering any substantial rise in containership charter rates.”
Although weak market conditions could force owners to further delay the deliveries of some of these ships, this was unlikely to result in a significant increase in slippage numbers above Alphaliner’s current forecasts.
“Of the 1.7m teu due this year, 55% is distributed on 54 vessels of 14,000 teu-21,000 teu,” Alphaliner said.
“Most of these 54 units are already earmarked for deployment on east-west services, including those to be launched from April 2017 within the new alliances framework, and are therefore expected to be delivered on schedule.”
Earlier this week, Drewry reported the overhang of containership orders due to be delivered this year would add to the problem of cascading on smaller trades as newly delivered large vessels push older tonnage onto north- south and regional trades.

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